(photo courtesy of Gage Skidmore)
The short answer is yes. Although the Republican base is less than excited about Mr. Romney as a candidate, the Party’s enthusiasm to see the defeat of President Obama may be enough to carry the GOP to victory. Mr. Romney could very possibly win the Presidency. However, he has several obstacles ahead of him in the coming months, the primary obstacle being the state of the Electoral College.
For the former Governor of Massachusetts to win in November, he has to hit the magic number of 270. This looks easy on paper. Getting over the hump in the Electoral College will be a challenge for Mr. Romney. According to PBS Newshour, several states will be in play this election. This list includes the traditional battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio, as well as the newcomers to this list which include Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Colorado. The Washington Post indicates that the President holds a solid four point lead in both Florida and Virginia, with a six point lead in Ohio. To make matters worse for Mr. Romney, Iowa, which PBS News considers in play might be more difficult to capture for the former Governor. A recent poll shows Mr. Romney trailing the President by 10 points. Iowa has not voted Republican since 1984, when it threw its support to President Reagan. This is interesting when one considers the nostalgic sentiment for Ronald Reagan (and the sentiment in and of itself is puzzling considered Pres. Reagan’s deficit record.).
If Candidate Romney was only behind in Iowa, the future would look bright. However, according to Real Clear Politics, he is behind in almost every poll in every battleground state. In the general election poll, President Obama is ahead by two points. Now, this will all change as the election grows closer. The convention will undoubtedly give each candidate a boost. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled for September 3rd-6th, just a week after the Republican’s, whose convention takes place from August 27th-30th. With both conventions so close together, the bumps that both candidates would hope to receive apart may cancel one another out. Ideally, democracy will benefit, with both conventions this close in the calendar, and we will see increased electoral participation in November.
Were the 2012 Election decided solely by the current polls, President Obama would be reelected convincingly. But…it’s not. Candidate Romney has several strengths that will make the race a dead-heat in the popular vote. With appropriately targeted issues and advertising, Mr. Romney can make this election very competitive in the Electoral College.
You might be interested in: “Can Romney Win: Part Two: Old, Angry, and Rich”